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Ice shelf basal melting is the primary mechanism driving mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, yet it is unknown how the localized melt enhancement from subglacial discharge will affect future Antarctic glacial retreat. We develop a parameterization of ice shelf basal melt that accounts for both ocean and subglacial discharge forcing and apply it in future projections of Denman and Scott Glaciers, East Antarctica, through 2300. In forward simulations, subglacial discharge accelerates the onset of retreat of these systems into the deepest continental trench on Earth by 25 years. During this retreat, Denman Glacier alone contributes 0.33 millimeters per year to global sea level rise, comparable to half of the contemporary sea level contribution of the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet. Our results stress the importance of resolving complex interactions between the ice, ocean, and subglacial environments in future Antarctic Ice Sheet projections. 

Abstract. Ice shelf dynamics and morphology play an important role in the stability of floating bodies of ice by driving fracturing that can lead to calving, in turn impacting the ability of the ice shelf to buttress upstream grounded ice. Following a 2016 calving event at the Nansen Ice Shelf (NIS), East Antarctica, we collected airborne and ground-based radar data to map ice thickness across the shelf. We combine these data with published satellite-derived data to examine the spatial variations in ice shelf draft, the cause and effects of ice shelf strain rates, and the possibility that a suture zone may be channelizing ocean water and altering patterns of sub-ice-shelf melt and freeze-on. We also use our datasets to assess limitations that may arise from relying on hydrostatic-balance equations applied to ice surface elevation to determine ice draft morphology. We find that the Nansen Ice Shelf has a highly variable basal morphology driven primarily by the formation of basal fractures near the onset of the ice shelf suture zone. This morphology is reflected in the ice shelf strain rates but not in the calculated hydrostatic-balance thickness, which underestimates the scale of variability at the ice shelf base. Enhanced melt rates near the ice shelf terminus and in steep regions of the channelized suture zone, along with relatively thin ice in the suture zone, appear to represent vulnerable areas in the NIS. This morphology, combined with ice dynamics, induce strain that has led to the formation of transverse fractures within the suture zone, resulting in large-scale calving events. Similar transverse fractures at other Antarctic ice shelves may also be driven by highly variable morphology, and predicting their formation and evolution could aid projections of ice shelf stability. 

Abstract. Radio-echo sounding (RES) has revealed an internal architecture within Antarctica’s ice sheets that records their depositional, deformational and melting histories. Crucially, spatially-widespread RES-imaged internal-reflecting horizons, tied to ice-core age-depth profiles, can be treated as isochrones that record the age-depth structure across the Antarctic ice sheets. These enable the reconstruction of past climate and ice-dynamical processes on large scales, which are complementary to but more spatially-extensive than commonly used proxy records across Antarctica. We review progress towards building a pan-Antarctic age-depth model from these data by first introducing the relevant RES datasets that have been acquired across Antarctica over the last six decades (focussing specifically on those that detected internal-reflecting horizons), and outlining the processing steps typically undertaken to visualise, trace and date (by intersection with ice cores, or modelling) the RES-imaged isochrones. We summarise the scientific applications to which Antarctica’s internal architecture has been applied to date and present a pathway to expanding Antarctic radiostratigraphy across the continent to provide a benchmark for a wider range of investigations: (1) Identification of optimal sites for retrieving new ice-core palaeoclimate records targeting different periods; (2) Reconstruction of surface mass balance on millennial or historical timescales; (3) Estimates of basal melting and geothermal heat flux from radiostratigraphy and comprehensively mapping basal-ice units, to complement inferences from other geophysical and geological methods; (4) Advancing knowledge of volcanic activity and fallout across Antarctica; (5) The refinement of numerical models that leverage radiostratigraphy to tune time-varying accumulation, basal melting and ice flow, firstly to reconstruct past behaviour, and then to reduce uncertainties in projecting future ice-sheet behaviour. 

Abstract Projections of global sea level depend sensitively on whether Thwaites Glacier, Antarctica, will continue to lose ice rapidly. Prior studies have focused primarily on understanding the evolution of ice velocity and whether the reverse‐sloping bed at Thwaites Glacier could drive irreversible retreat. However, the overall ice flux to the ocean and the possibility of irreversible retreat depend not only on the ice speed but also on the width of the main ice trunk. Here, we complement prior work by focusing specifically on understanding whether the lateral boundaries of the main ice trunk, termed shear margins, might migrate over time. We hypothesize that the shear margins at Thwaites Glacier will migrate on a decadal timescale in response to continued ice thinning and surface steepening. We test this hypothesis by developing a depth‐averaged, thermomechanical free‐boundary model that captures the complex topography underneath the glacier and solves for both the ice velocity and for the position of the shear margins. We find that both shear margins are prone to migration in response to ice thinning with basal strength and surface slope steepening determining their relative motion. We construct four end‐member cases of basal strength that represent different physical properties governing friction at the glacier bed and present two cases of ice thinning to contrast the effects of surface steepening and ice thinning. We test our model by hindcasting historic data and discuss how data from ongoing field campaigns could further be used to test our model. 

Abstract We describe elongate, wet, subglacial bedforms in the shear margins of the NE Greenland Ice Stream and place some constraints on their formation. Lateral shear margin moraines have been observed across the previously glaciated landscape, but little is known about the ice-flow conditions necessary to form these bedforms. Here we describe in situ sediment bedforms under the NE Greenland Ice Stream shear margins that are observed in active-source seismic and ground-penetrating radar surveys. We find bedforms in the shear margins that are ~500 m wide, ~50 m tall, and elongated nearly parallel to ice-flow, including what we believe to be the first subglacial observation of a shear margin moraine. Acoustic impedance analysis of the bedforms shows that they are composed of unconsolidated, deformable, water-saturated till. We use these geophysical observations to place constraints on the possible formation mechanism of these subglacial features.